Промышленный лизинг Промышленный лизинг  Методички 

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When comparing customer profiles, it is important to keep in mind the profile of the population as a whole. For this reason, using indexes is often better than using raw values.

Chapter 11 describes a related notion of similarity based on the difference between two angles. In that approach, each measured attribute is considered a separate dimension. Taking the average value of each attribute as the origin, the profile of current readers is a vector that represents how far he or she differs from the larger population and in what direction. The data representing a prospect is also a vector. If the angle between the two vectors is small, the prospect differs from the population in the same direction.

Measuring Fitness for Groups of Readers

The idea behind index-based scores can be extended to larger groups of people. This is important because the particular characteristics used for measuring the population may not be available for each customer or prospect. Fortunately, and not by accident, the preceding characteristics are all demographic characteristics that are available through the U.S. Census and can be measured by geographical divisions such as census tract (see the sidebar, Data by Census Tract ).

The process here is to rate each census tract according to its fitness for the publication. The idea is to estimate the proportion of each census tract that fits the publications readership profile. For instance, if a census tract has an adult population that is 58 percent college educated, then everyone in it gets a fitness score of 1 for this characteristic. If 100 percent are college educated, then the score is still 1-a perfect fit is the best we can do. If, however, only 5.8 percent graduated from college, then the fitness score for this characteristic is 0.1. The overall fitness score is the average of the individual scores for each characteristic.

Figure 4.1 provides an example for three census tracts in Manhattan. Each tract has a different proportion of the four characteristics being considered. This data can be combined to get an overall fitness score for each tract. Note that everyone in the tract gets the same score. The score represents the proportion of the population in that tract that fits the profile.



DATA BY CENSUS TRACT

The U.S. government is constitutionally mandated to carry out an enumeration of the population every 10 years. The primary purpose of the census is to allocate seats in the House of Representatives to each state. In the process of satisfying this mandate, the census also provides a wealth of information about the American population.

The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) surveys the American population using two questionnaires, the short form and the long form (not counting special purposes questionnaires, such as the one for military personnel). Most people get the short form, which asks a few basic questions about gender, age, ethnicity, and household size. Approximately 2 percent of the population gets the long form, which asks much more detailed questions about income, occupation, commuting habits, spending patterns, and more. The responses to these questionnaires provide the basis for demographic profiles.

The Census Bureau strives to keep this information up to date between each decennial census. The Census Bureau does not release information about individuals. Instead, it aggregates the information by small geographic areas. The most commonly used is the census tract, consisting of about 4,000 individuals. Although census tracts do vary in size, they are much more consistent in population than other geographic units, such as counties and postal codes.

The census does have smaller geographic units, blocks and block groups; however, in order to protect the privacy of residents, some data is not made available below the level of census tracts. From these units, it is possible to aggregate information by county, state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), legislative districts, and so on. The following figure shows some census tracts in the center of Manhattan:




DATA BY CENSUS TRACT (continued)

One philosophy of marketing is based on the old proverb birds of a feather flock together. That is, people with similar interests and tastes live in similar areas (whether voluntarily or because of historical patterns of discrimination). According to this philosophy, it is a good idea to market to people where you already have customers and in similar areas. Census information can be valuable, both for understanding where concentrations of customers are located and for determining the profile of similar areas.

Tract 189 Goal

Tract

Fitness

Edu College+ 19.2%

61.3%

0.31

Occ Prof+Exec 17.8%

45.5%

0.39

HHI $75K+ 5.0%

22.6%

0.22

HHI $100K+ 2.4%

7.4%

0.32

Overall Advertising Fitness

0.31

Tract 122 Goal Tract

Fitness

Edu College+ 66.7% 61.3%

1.00

Occ Prof+Exec 45.0% 45.5%

0.99

HHI $75K+ 58.0% 22.6%

1.00

HHI $100K+ 50.2% 7.4%

1.00

Overall Advertising Fitness

1.00

Tract 129 Goal

Tract

Fitness

Edu College+ 44.8%

61.3%

0.73

Occ Prof+Exec 36.5%

45.5%

0.80

HHI $75K+ 14.8%

22.6%

0.65

HHI $100K+ 7.2%

7.4%

0.97

Overall Advertising Fitness

0.79

Figure 4.1 Example of calculating readership fitness for three census tracts in Manhattan.

Data Mining to Improve Direct Marketing Campaigns

Advertising can be used to reach prospects about whom nothing is known as individuals. Direct marketing requires at least a tiny bit of additional information such as a name and address or a phone number or an email address. Where there is more information, there are also more opportunities for data mining. At the most basic level, data mining can be used to improve targeting by selecting which people to contact.



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