7. Orphanides, A., Monetary Policy in Deflation: The Liquidity Trap in History and Practice, Federal Reserve Publication, 2003.

8. Investment Company Institute, www.ici.org, 2004 fact book, 122.

Chapter 8 Stocks

1. All data in this section from Siegel, J.J., Stocks for the Long Run, 2nd ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998).

2. Dow Jones, www.djindexes.com.

3. Dimson, E., P. Marsh, et al., Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002), 34-38.

4. Arnott, R. and P. Bernstein, What Risk Premium Is Normal? Financial Analysts Journal 58 (2002): 64-85.

5. Hawking, S., A Brief History of Time, 10th anniversary edition (New York: Bantam, 1988), 129.

6. Ibid, 128.

7. Ibid, 129.

8. Chomsky, N., Confronting the Empire, Z Magazine 16, no. 3 (January 27, 2003).

9. Taleb, N.N., Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life (New York: Texere, 2001). Taleb, N.N., The Black Swan (New York: Random House, 2005).

10. Galbraith, J.K., The Great Crash 1929 (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1979).

11. The Wall Street Journal.

12. Microsoft conference call, July 22, 2004.

13. The Wall Street Journal.

14. The Wall Street Journal; see Table 3.1 of this book.

15. Dow Jones, www.djindexes.com.

16. Bearish Merrill Strategist under Fire, Cnnfn, November 22, 2003.

17. Leading Wall St. Firms Asset Allocation Recommendations (for 2004), Dow Jones Newswires, December 31, 2003.

18. Federal Reserve, see Figures 6.3 and 6.4 of this book.

19. Siegel, J.J., Stocks for the Long Run, 3rd ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2002), 361.

Chapter 9 Real Estate

1. The Japan Real Estate Institute, Urban Land Price Index (Nationwide), www.reinet.or.jp.

2. Ricardo, D., On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation (London: John Murray, 1817).

3. Mankiw, N.G., Principles of Economics, 2nd ed. (Fort Worth, TX: Harcourt College Publishers, 2001).

4. Fallows, J., The Passionless Presidency: The Trouble with Jimmy Carters Administration, The Atlantic Monthly (May 1979).

5. Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight and Federal Reserve; see also Figure 7.1 of this book.

6. Mankiw, N.G., and D.N. Weil, The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market, Regional Science and Urban Economics 19 (1989): 235-258.

7. S&P 500 (July 2004) 1101, Earnings estimate for S&P $61.50 for 2004 (Goldman, Sachs & Co.).

8. Dow Jones, www.djindexes.com.

9. Krainer, J., House Price Bubbles, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter (#2003-06), 2003.

10. MacKay, C., Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions (London: R. Bentley, 1841).

11. Marx, G., Groucho and Me (Classics of Modern American Humor Series). (New York: AMS Press, 1991).

12. Securities and Exchange Commission, www.sec.gov.

13. Federal Reserve, Consumer Credit, www.federalreserve.gov.

14. Mortgage Bankers Association, www.mbaa.org.

15. Jacobs, B., Capital Ideas and Market Realities: Option Replication, Investor Behavior, and Stock Market Crashes (Oxford: Blackwell, 1999).

16. Dow Jones, www.djindexes.com.

17. Mortgage Bankers Association, www.mbaa.org.

18. Killing Hope-The Imminent Execution of Sean Sellers, Amnesty International, December 1, AMR 51/108/1998, 1998.

19. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspans prepared remarks at the Credit Union National Association 2004 Governmental Affairs Conference, Washington, D.C., February 23, 2004.

Chapter 10 Timeless Advice

1. Bowlby, J., Attachment and Loss. Vol. I: Attachment (New York: Basic Books, 1969). Bowlby, J., Attachment and Loss. Vol. II: Separation, Anxiety, and Anger (New York: Basic Books, 1973). Wilson, E.O., Sociobiology: The New Synthesis (Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1975). Wilson, E.O., On Human Nature (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1978). Tooby, J., and L. Cosmides, Evolutionary Psychology and the Generation of Culture: I. Theoretical Considerations, Ethology & Sociobiology 10 (1989): 29-49. Barkow, J.H., L. Cosmides, et al.,

The Adapted Mind: Evolutionary Psychology and the Generation of Culture (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992). Irons, W., Adaptively Relevant Environments Versus the Environment of Evolutionary Adaptedness, Evolutionary Anthropology 6, no. 6 (1998): 194-204.

2. Irons, W., Adaptively Relevant Environments Versus the Environment of Evolutionary Adaptedness, Evolutionary Anthropology 6, no. 6 (1998): 194-204.

3. Tooby, J., and L. Cosmides, The Past Explains the Present: Emotional Adaptations and the Structure of Ancestral Environments, Ethology & Sociobiology 11 (1990): 375-124.

4. Gigerenzer, G., The Bounded Rationality of Probabilistic Mental Modules, Rationality. K.I. Manktelow and D.E. Over, eds. (London and New York: Routledge, 1993), 284-313.

5. Gigerenzer, G., Ecological Intelligence: An Adaptation for Frequencies, The Evolution of Mind, D. Cummins and C. Allen, eds. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998), 107-125.

6. Personal communication.

7. Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, Variants of Uncertainty, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982), 512.

8. Shostak, M., Nisa, the Life and Words of a !Kung Woman (Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press, 1981). Hill, K., and M. Hurtado, Ache Life History: The Ecology and Demography of a Foraging People (New York: Aline De Gruyter, 1996). Chagnon, N., Yanomamo, 4th ed. (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1992).

9. Lee, R., The Dobe Ju/hoansi (New York: Harcourt Brace, 1993), 42.

10. Barkow, J.H., L. Cosmides, et al., The Adapted Mind: Evolutionary Psychology and the Generation of Culture (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992).

11. Silverman, I., and M. Eals, Sex Differences in Spatial Abilities: Evolutionary Theory and Data, The Adapted Mind: Evolutionary Psychology and the Generation of Culture. J.H. Barkow, L. Cosmides, and J. Tooby, eds. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992), 573.

12. Barber, B.M., and T. Odean, Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment, Quarterly Journal of Economics 116, no. 1 (2001): 261-292.

13. Lefevre, E., Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (New York: G.H. Doran, 1923).

14. Morton, F., The Rothschilds: Portrait of a Dynasty (reprint edition) (New York: Kodansha International, 1998), 48-50.

15. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Science 185 (1974): 1124-1131.